Template-type: ReDif-Paper 1.0 
Author-Name: Sartorello Spinola, Danilo
Author-Email: sartorello@merit.unu.edu.
Author-workplace-name: UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University
Title: Instability constraints and development traps: An empirical analysis of growth 
	 cycles and economic volatility in Latin America
Abstract: Latin America is a region marked by an endogenous pattern of volatility 
	 that halts its development process. This article consists of empirically 
	 testing its volatility characteristics in terms of cycles. This paper 
	 (1) uses a filter decomposition to isolate economic cycles of distinct 
	 natures on the GDP growth time series for 136 countries covering the 
	 period 1950-2016. (2) It calculates each country's cycle GDP volatility 
	 (standard deviation), and finally (3) applies clustering methods to 
	 classify the results into groups. The main conclusions point that the 
	 majority of Latin American countries the relative dominance of the 
	 long-run economic cycles explaining the overall volatility. Exceptions 
	 to that are Mexico, Colombia and Chile, in which the short-run cycle 
	 shows a higher relative importance. Data shows that LAC is not the most 
	 volatile region of the world, but it has some characteristics as a 
	 region in terms of the origin of their volatility.
Keywords: Macroeconomic Volatility, Economic Cycles, Time Series, Filter Decomposition
Classification-JEL: C21, C32, O47
Series: UNU-MERIT Working Papers
Creation-Date: 20180116
Number: 2018-002
File-URL: https://unu-merit.nl/publications/wppdf/2018/wp2018-002.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 275 kb
Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2018002