Template-type: ReDif-Paper 1.0 
Author-Name: Krebs, Lutz
Author-Email: krebs@merit.unu.edu
Author-workplace-name: UNU-MERIT
Title: Tilting at windmills or whipping up a storm? Elites and ethno-nationalist 
	 conflict during democratisation
Abstract: How much influence do political leaders have on the likelihood of ethnic 
	 civil war? Two opposing theoretical positions exist: elite manipulation 
	 theorists argue that leaders incite ethno-nationalism to secure their 
	 hold on power (Snyder 2000, Gagnon 2004). However, political leaders 
	 rarely have both the ability and the ideal environment to manipulate 
	 identities (Brubaker 1998). Instead, structural forces like ethnic 
	 security dilemmas could be driving forces behind conflict onset (Posen 
	 1993), leaving elites virtually without influence on the probability of 
	 civil-war onset. This study uses large-N regressions to test both 
	 theories and a hybrid alternative focussing on two problems inherent to 
	 democratisation settings: the need to settle the demos question and 
	 ongoing competition between incumbent and challenging political leaders. 
	 Results confirm that ongoing democratisation phases, the prior existence 
	 of security worries caused by politicised ethnic divisions, and factors 
	 threatening incumbents have a significant positive influence on the risk 
	 of civil war.
Keywords: Democratisation, ethno-nationalism, political elites, civil war 
Classification-JEL: N40
Series: UNU-MERIT Working Papers
Creation-Date: 20161115
Number: 2016-064
File-URL: https://unu-merit.nl/publications/wppdf/2016/wp2016-064.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 275 kb
Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2016064