Template-type: ReDif-Paper 1.0 
Author-Name: Cervellati, Matteo
Author-Email: m.cervellati@unibo.it
Author-workplace-name: IZA Bonn, and University of Bologna
Author-Name: Sunde, Uwe
Author-Email: uwe.sunde@lmu.de
Author-workplace-name: IZA Bonn, and University of Munich
Author-Name: Zimmermann, Klaus F.
Author-Email: zimmermann@merit.unu.edu
Author-workplace-name: UNU-MERIT, and Princeton University
Title: Demographic dynamics and long-run development: Insights for the secular 
	 stagnation debate  
Abstract: This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate 
	 about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short 
	 term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the 
	 economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed 
	 world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in 
	 the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the 
	 economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more 
	 moderate once the transition is completed. At the same time, a similar 
	 transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound 
	 consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also 
	 for global comparative development. The evidence presented here suggests 
	 that long-run development dynamics have potentially important 
	 implications for the prospects of human and physical capital 
	 accumulation, the evolution of productivity and the question of secular 
	 stagnation.
Keywords: secular stagnation, long-term development, income growth, demographic transition
Classification-JEL: C54, E10, J11, J13, J18, N30, O10, O40
Series: UNU-MERIT Working Papers
Creation-Date: 20160914
Number: 2016-049
File-URL: https://unu-merit.nl/publications/wppdf/2016/wp2016-049.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 275 kb
Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2016049