Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Azomahou, Theophile
Author-Email: azomahou@merit.unu.edu
Author-Workplace-Name: UNU-MERIT
Title: The Economic Impact of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa 
Abstract: In this paper, a simple general equilibrium model à la Solow is  
	 developed to capture the impact of AIDS on economic growth. To this end,  
	 a benchmark model due to Cuddington and Hancock (1994) is extended in  
	 various directions. In particular, the sharply declining life expectancy  
	 patterns are clearly rejected in the enlarged model through a generic  
	 Ben-Porath mechanism. AIDS-related health expenditures are incorporated  
	 as well. Using up-do-date optimal forecasting methods, the model applied  
	 to South Africa shows that while a relatively short term assessment  
	 might not reveal any dramatic AIDS growth effect, the medium/long run  
	 impact can be truly devastating. In particular, the heavy trends in  
	 mortality and life expectancy currently induced by AIDS are shown to be  
	 potentially at least twice more detrimen-tal for per capita economic  
	 growth in the period 2020-2030 compared to 2000-2010.
Classification-JEL: C61, C62, O41 
Keywords: Epidemics, Life Expectancy, Economic Growth, AIDS
Series: UNU-MERIT Working Papers
Creation-Date: 2008
Number: 2008-038
File-URL: https://unu-merit.nl/publications/wppdf/2008/wp2008-038.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 275 Kb
Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2008038