Template-type: ReDif-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Willems E
Author-workplace-name: ROA rm
Title: Modelling Replacement Demand: A Random Coefficient Approach
Abstract: Replacement demand due to regular and early retirement, disablement, temporary withdrawals of women owing to birth and child raising, et cetera, constitutes an important element of the future demand for newcomers on the labour market. It is, however, often neglected in manpower forecasting studies. In this paper, we develop a flow model with which we can forecast the replacement demand at a detailed level of types of education. The essential element of the model is the determination of the yearly outflow coefficients for each type of education, distinguished by age category and gender. Instead of applying a fixed coefficient approach (Willems and De Grip (1993), we will introduce the random coefficient estimation technique in the model. This technique takes the reliability of the flow coefficients explicitly into account. If a specific flow coefficient is unreliable, the random coefficient estimate will tend towards the mean value for that age category over the types of education. This means that ad hoc corrections based on judgmental forecasting can be considerably reduced. Moreover, it will be shown that the random coefficient estimates of labour market outflow are more reliable than the estimates of the Willems/De Grip model.
Keywords: labour market entry; 
Series: Research Memoranda
Creation-Date: 1999
Number: 002
File-URL: http://digitalarchive.maastrichtuniversity.nl/fedora/objects/guid:ef1194ed-1113-40e0-b86b-69b75c5f7c86/datastreams/ASSET1/content
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 122506
Handle: RePEc:unm:umaror:1999002