Template-type: ReDif-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Wong P-H. 
Author-workplace-name: UNU-MERIT
Title: Insurgents in motion: Counterinsurgency and insurgency relocation in Iraq
Abstract: Recent studies in general are positive regarding the effectiveness of US  counterinsurgency programs in Iraq. The right mix of coercion, ethnic  strategy, and public goods provision, it is argued, makes Iraqis less  likely to rebel against the US army and the Iraqi government, thus  reducing insurgent violence. In fact, the number of insurgent attacks  dramatically declined shortly after the change in the counterinsurgency  strategy in 2007. How robust is the positive finding A common  assumption behind previous analyses is that insurgent attacks have a  strong local root and is unlikely to be reproduced in other areas.  Violation of this spatial independence assumption, however, can  potentially bias towards the positive result. Based on the novel spatial  dynamic panel data SDPD model, my analysis shows that spatial  dependence should be addressed and cannot be assumed away. Results based  on the new model also reveal that, conditional upon other strategies,  the effects of a counterinsurgency strategy vary considerably both in  magnitude and direction, suggesting that some policy mixes could be  counterproductive. Policy makers seeking to adopt similar strategies in  Afghanistan should take the relocation into account in their policy  evaluations.
Keywords: Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions; National Security; Economic Nationalism; National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs; National Security and War; Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East; 
Classification-JEL: D74; F51; F52; H53; H56; O53; .
Series:  Working Papers
Creation-Date: 2014
Number: 045
File-URL: http://pub.maastrichtuniversity.nl/d6730b70-acc8-4332-9094-b4045b4dee3c
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Size: 1949852
Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2014045